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Bihar Election 2025 Opinion Poll Survey: Tight Position Between NDA vs. Grand Alliance show extremely interesting and competitive
The Bihar Election 2025 Opinion Poll Survey predicts this election to be extremely interesting and competitive. Bihar politics has always hinged on caste dynamics, social structure, and alliance strength. According to the latest survey report, the 2025 election could prove to be a close contest between the NDA and the Grand Alliance. Meanwhile, the entry of Prashant Kishore's party, Jan Suraj, has made the political atmosphere even more interesting.
NDA vs. Grand Alliance – Electoral Equations
The survey clearly shows that both the NDA and the Grand Alliance are trying to woo their traditional vote banks. This time, the Bihar Election 2025 Opinion Poll Survey indicates that voters are largely stable within their respective camps, and the likelihood of large-scale vote transfers is low.
Dalit Vote Bank Equations
According to the survey report, the Dalit population in Bihar is approximately 20%.
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A large number of Chamar and Paswan communities may vote in favor of the NDA.
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The presence of leaders like Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi is considered to strengthen the NDA's hold on Dalit votes.
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However, the influence of Chandrashekhar Ravan and his party, the Azad Samaj Party, is being seen among Dalit youth, which could strengthen the Grand Alliance.
Muslim Vote Bank and the Grand Alliance
The Muslim community constitutes approximately 17% of Bihar's total population.
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According to surveys, this community may support the Grand Alliance on a large scale.
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In the 2020 elections, the Muslim vote was divided between the AIMIM and the Grand Alliance, but this time the situation appears to be different.
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However, there is some dissatisfaction with the lack of importance given to Muslim leaders in Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav's 'Voter Rights Yatra'.
The Influence of EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes)
The EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes) have played a decisive role in Bihar politics.
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This class constitutes approximately 26% of the total population and has traditionally supported the NDA.
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Surveys indicate that a large number of EBC voters may remain with the NDA this time as well.
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However, the Grand Alliance has released a special manifesto to woo the EBCs. Their stance will become clearer after ticket distribution.
OBC and Yadav Equation
The OBC community constitutes approximately 25% of the total population in Bihar.
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Of these, the Yadav community (approximately 14%) has long been a strong RJD vote bank.
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On the other hand, the Koeri, Kurmi, and Kushwaha communities have traditionally been NDA supporters.
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But surveys suggest that, like the Lok Sabha elections, a segment of the Kushwaha community may also lean towards the Grand Alliance this time.
The entry of Jan Suraj – will the equation change?
Prashant Kishore's party, Jan Suraj, is also in the fray. This party can particularly influence urban voters and youth. Consequently, the possibility of a shift in traditional vote bank equations has increased.
The picture of Bihar Election 2025 Opinion results
The Bihar Election 2025 Opinion Poll indicates in first step survey that this election results could be the most competitive yet.
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It is expected that the NDA is receiving support from Dalit and EBC voters.
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The Grand Alliance is expected to gain strength from Muslim and Yadav voters.
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Jan Suraj and smaller parties are in a position to make inroads into the vote bank.
The final picture will only become clear after ticket distribution, election campaigning, and political strategy. But it is certain that this time the decision of the people of Bihar will impact not only state but national politics as well.
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