Bihar Election Opinion Poll 2025: Nitish or Tejashwi? The next CM
Bihar Election Opinion Poll 2025: Bihar politics is once again heated. As the assembly elections proposed at the end of 2025 are approaching, the public, politicians and analysts all have their eyes on the future of Bihar. This time the contest is going to be interesting between NDA vs Mahagathbandhan. But will Nitish Kumar become the Chief Minister again or will Tejashwi Yadav get the mandate of the people? Let's know what has come out in 4 big opinion polls.
Bihar Election 2025: In whose favor is the mood of the public?
Bihar politics has been based on caste equations, social issues and the role of youth and women voters. The four major opinion polls that have come out so far regarding the 2025 elections show that this time the contest will be very close. While the NDA is currently seeing a slight lead, Tejashwi Yadav's influence among the youth and the presence of new faces like Prashant Kishore can also change the equation.
1. India Today-CVoter MOTN Opinion Poll (February 2025)
According to the 'Mood of the Nation' survey released by India Today and C-Voter in February 2025, if Lok Sabha or Assembly elections were held in Bihar at this time, NDA could get 33 to 35 seats, while the Grand Alliance was seen getting only 5 to 7 seats.
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NDA vote share: increased from 47% to 52%
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INDIA Block vote share: increased from 39% to 42%
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Total participants in the survey: 1,25,123 people (2 January - 9 February 2025)
According to political analysts, if BJP, JDU and LJP remain united, it will be difficult to remove them from power. However, the decline in Nitish Kumar's popularity may pose a challenge this time.
2. C-Voter Bihar Election Survey (February 2025)
This survey published on 26 February 2025 observed that Nitish Kumar's popularity is declining rapidly. Tejashwi Yadav was the first choice of the public for the post of Chief Minister:
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Tejashwi Yadav (RJD): 41%
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Nitish Kumar (JDU): 18%
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Prashant Kishore (Jan Suraj): 15%
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Samrat Chaudhary (BJP): 8%
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Chirag Paswan (LJP): 4%
Credibility and resentment:
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58% people believe that Nitish Kumar's credibility has declined drastically.
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50% people are angry with the government and want change.
Major election issues:
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Unemployment: 45%
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Inflation: 11%
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Electricity-water-roads: 10%
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Agriculture and corruption: 4%
This survey made it clear that the trust of the youth is now leaning towards Tejashwi Yadav, while women still prefer Nitish Kumar.
3. C-Voter April 2025 Bihar Opinion Poll
This latest survey of April 2025 saw interesting changes. There was a change in the popularity of all the leaders as compared to February.
Chief Ministerial Choice (February vs April 2025):
| Leader | February (%) | April (%) |
| Tejashwi Yadav (RJD) | 40.6% | 35.5% |
| Prashant Kishore (Jan Suraj) | 14.9% | 17.2% |
| Nitish Kumar (JDU) | 18.4% | 15.4% |
| Samrat Choudhary (BJP) | 8.2% | 12.5% |
| Chirag Paswan (LJP) | 3.7% | 5.8% |
Analysis:
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Tejashwi Yadav's popularity declines, but he is still on top.
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Prashant Kishore has taken advantage of the fight between Nitish and Tejashwi.
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Samrat Choudhary and Chirag Paswan are seen as the emerging faces of the NDA.
4. InkInsight Opinion Poll 2025 (May 2025)
According to this survey, women and young voters can play an important role this time. Women are still inclined towards Nitish Kumar, while the youth are increasingly getting attracted to Tejashwi Yadav.
Women voters:
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Preferring Nitish Kumar.
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Women empowerment and schemes are working in his favor.
Young voters:
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Liking Tejashwi Yadav.
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Promises of employment, education and change are luring the youth.
Bihar Election Opinion Poll 2025: What does the conclusion say?
Analysis of all four opinion polls reveals some important things:
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NDA is currently ahead, but the contest is very tough.
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Tejashwi Yadav is the most preferred chief ministerial face, especially among young voters.
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The women's vote bank still supports Nitish Kumar.
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Prashant Kishore has emerged as an alternative, especially among the educated class and new voters.
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Samrat Choudhary and Chirag Paswan may emerge as new faces in the NDA.
What do experts say?
Political expert Manisha Priyam believes that this election will not be easy for Nitish Kumar. Frequent changes in alliances and lack of trust in his policies have damaged his image. On the other hand, Tejashwi Yadav's ground connection among the youth can benefit him.
Prashant Kishore's strategy and campaigning style can also have a big impact in the coming months. However, so far his mass base seems limited.
Final conclusion: Who will win?
According to Bihar Election Opinion Poll 2025, this time the people of Bihar are in the mood for change. But in which direction the change will happen will completely depend on the campaign, selection of candidates, strength of alliance and last minute political equations.
One thing is certain - Bihar Election 2025 will not be one-sided, but this election will decide the political direction of the state. The more aware the voter has become, the more complex the politics is becoming. Now it remains to be seen, who does the "public mandate" hand over the power of Bihar – Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav, or some third face?